If China invaded Taiwan with its full might, would we expect quad countries to help prevent the outcome?

Answered by Martin Sebastian on Quora.com

If China invaded Taiwan with its full might, would we expect quad countries to help prevent the outcome?

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15 Answers



Martin Sebastian

Answered April 8

This is how China vs Taiwan war would look like. China playing white, Taiwan playing black. Or in other words, the chance for Taiwan to draw ( survive ) is basically 0 let alone winning.



The power disparity is too great, no nation in the world can intervene as Taiwan’s supporting force. To help Taiwan, one must turn the war into its own war vs China, with Taiwan as its supporting force.

The question is, which country is militarily powerful enough to face China, and at the same time, willing to spend tens to hundreds of billions of dollars, and sustain thousands to tens of thousands of casualties or even risk a nuclear exchange, for Taiwan?

On paper, there are only 2 countries in the world militarily strong enough to challenge China in her own backyard. The US and Russia.

Russia is out of the equation in this case. Militarily, Russia can top or at least match whatever China can bring to the table. But economically, Russia cannot outlast China in a full-fledged and prolonged conflict. And most importantly, there is ultimately no reason for Russia to take sides with Taiwan. China is a much more valuable partner for Russian than insignificant Taiwan. If Taiwan ceases to exist, Russia probably wouldn’t feel a thing.

The US certainly has a strong geopolitical interest to take sides with Taiwan. But, that interest doesn’t outweigh the cost. Taiwan has no value to the US beyond a geopolitical tool. And even as a tool, Taiwan is only a tool that is good to have but not something you cannot live without. Taiwan is not the only US proxy in the region. There are Japan and South Korea which are more trustworthy in the eyes of the US. That being said, the US isn’t going to lose its control of the region if Taiwan was gone.

So, not in a million years, the US would turn China - Taiwan shit into its own war. Taiwan knows that, China knows that, we all know that except for some delusional people living inside their bubbles.

If China invaded Taiwan with its full might,

If I were Taiwanese, I for sure wouldn’t be worried. Unless the US declares war on China and would use Taiwan as its military staging area. The PLA won’t be storming my coasts. The unification can only be done in a peaceful way. Military invasion or brute policy cannot achieve that. The CPC is too smart for not knowing that.

Say you have a lost brother who disowns you, that you want him to come home. Beat him up into a pulp and drag him home by force won’t bring home a brother but a potential murderer to choke you in your sleep. Military solution will not unify China, only give China a problematic rebellious province to lose sleep to, in the future.

But anyhow, I can assure you if hypothetically China invades Taiwan tomorrow. No one would intervene beyond screaming out loud at the UN. No country would take any action more than sanctions, and embargos. The US would probably put its battlegroups on parade in safe proximity somewhere in the Philipinnes Sea, but that's it.

That being said. China's invasion of Taiwan is really really really unlikely to happen. Not because of the possibility of foreign military intervention. But military invasion not only does not deliver, it kills the unification China wants.

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Jerome Wei Liang, Can converse in 6-7 languages. Literate in 5 (2005-present)

Answered April 8

Why would China do a foolish thing like that?

The truth is, China doesn't really need to use its full military might to wreck Taiwan's economy. All Beijing needs to do, if it is that moronic, is to fire missiles into Taiwan. Destroying all the military airports, fuel.depots, satellite signal receivers, power plants, sea ports, expressways, military command hubs/nexus, President's Office etc. All of a sudden, jet fighters, navy warships, army of ROC lose their mechanized mobility and loses much of their combat power. Even then, Beijing won't do it.

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Eric Barter, studied at University of Bremen

Answered April 10